Can economic sanctions be successfully fought by currency measures? A study by the example of western sanctions on Russia

• Номер работы:
  367800
• Раздел:
  Все работы   →   Части дипломной   →   Финансы, деньги, кредит (ФДК)
• Год добавления:
  09.11.2015 г.
• Объем работы:
  49 стр.
• Содержание:
  Executive Summary 3
  Introduction 5
  History of the Russian Rubel 8
  Emergence of money in Russia 8
  Development and changes of the monetary system in Russia 11
  Macroeconomic situation: structural slowdown 13
  The economic consequences of the annexation of Crimea 13
  Sanctions and counter-sanctions have turned a slowdown in stagflation 17
  Gold in world economy 21
  The impact of western sanctions on the flow of capital 21
  Backing ruble with gold 23
  Scenarios for the Russian economy amid western sanctions and falling gold prices 29
  Quantitative assessment of the effect of western sanctions 30
  Mobilization scenario 31
  «Negative» scenario 41
  «Volatile» scenario 43
  Conclusion 45
  Recommendation 47
  Bibliography 49
  
  
• Выдержка из работы:
  Некоторые тезисы из работы по теме Can economic sanctions be successfully fought by currency measures? A study by the example of western sanctions on Russia
  Executive Summary
  
  The economic crisis which was happened in 2014 connected with reduction of sources of growth and accumulation of institutional restrictions was strengthened by mutual sanctions between Russia and the countries of the West, and also falling in the second half of the year 2014 of prices of oil for 45%. This crisis gradually gains steam. By the end of 2014 crisis affected the currency market and the banking sector, since the beginning of 2015 crisis affected real sector of economy. In this research possible consequences of crisis were estimated taking into account that return of prices of oil to 100 dollars/barrel. won"t occur, and action of mutual sanctions between Russia and the western countries remains. At preservation of prices of oil at the level of about 50 dollars/barrel. and tendencies to the international isolation of Russia GDP volume in real terms for the four-year period can return to levels of 3-5-year, that is pass in the opposite direction more than a half of a way from a bottom of last crisis. Thus even gradual return of prices of oil to the level of 80 dollars/barrel. won"t allow to solve all problems. Falling of economy in 2015-2016 will be softened, but growth rates in 2017-2018 won"t exceed 2% a year. Active use of resources of Reserve fund and NWF during this period increases risks of the budgetary imbalance in case of new falling of prices of oil.
  Research is based on the fundamental theories and concepts presented in modern works of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of studying of national and economic interests and national economy. Research is based on the structural analysis of a state economically Russia based on use of the dialectic principles of knowledge formed a methodological basis of research. In research were widely used the systemic-functional approach calculated on prospect of practical application of results of research; and also theoretical and empirical methods, among which logical analysis, scientific generalization, deductive synthesis.
  .......................
  Introduction
  
  Stable currency was known in history. This is a fairly familiar «gold standard». In the system of the gold standard never was strong or weak currencies. Each currency was tied to gold and banknotes could be exchanged for gold upon demand of their holders. The reduction of the gold content of the currency is called a devaluation, was rare, and was perceived negatively by the holders of that currency as a withdrawal of the state from its obligations.
  Russia"s international reserves declined during 2014-2015. The reason was the sharp decline of the ruble caused by falling oil prices.
  To compensate for the devaluation of the ruble, the Central Bank was forced to make active currency interventions, mass selling of foreign currency. Thus, the Central Bank boosted the demand for the ruble in the foreign exchange market.
  Despite the efforts of the Central Bank, the ruble continues to rapidly cheaper. Since October 2013, the Russian national currency has depreciated against the dollar by 23.5%, to Euro - by 16.5%. In world practice, the devaluation of the national currency by more than 20% over 12 months is considered a currency crisis.
  Note that in conditions of high dependence of Russia on import of technologies, equipment, drugs and many foods sharp devaluation of the ruble leads to higher prices for imported products, and a reduction in the profitability of many industries in Russia. In fact, the process of depreciation of savings, salaries and pensions.
  .............