Оценка эффекта введения санкций ЕС против РФ за 2014 год

• Номер работы:
  370824
• Раздел:
  Все работы   →   Магистерские работы   →   Макроэкономика, государственное регулирование экономики
• Год добавления:
  15.12.2015 г.
• Объем работы:
  49 стр.
• Содержание:
  TABLE OF CONTENTS
  
  THE ABSTRACT 1
  1. INTRODUCTION 4
  1.1 Background and overview 4
  1.2 Research purpose 6
  1.3 Research questions 6
  1.4 Research hypothesizes 7
  1.5 Disposition 7
  2. LITERATURE REVIEW 9
  2.1 Problem definition 9
  2.2 Sanctions as a international policy tool: historical background 10
  2.3 Description of the sanctions against Russia 13
  2.4 History of the imposition of the sanctions against Russia 18
  2.4.1 Background 18
  2.4.2 First round of sanctions: March/April 2014 19
  2.4.3 Second round of sanctions: April 2014 20
  2.4.4 Third round of sanctions: 2014 - present 21
  2.5 The response of Russia on sanctions 21
  2.6 Macroeconomic effect of sanctions for the Russian economy 25
  2.6.1 Consequences for stock market 25
  2.6.2 Rise in inflation rate 27
  2.6.3 Currency depreciation 28
  2.6.4 GDP growth rate decline 31
  2.7 Falling of oil prices and its value for Russia 33
  3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 38
  3.1 Research strategy 38
  3.2 Research approach 40
  3.3 Data collection methods 41
  3.4 Synthetic Control Methods 42
  3.5 Information processing methods 44
  3.6 Research credibility 45
  4. EVALUATING THE EFFECT OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
  4.1 European Union Sanctions Policy towards Russia
  4.2 SWOT analysis of the European Union sanctions policy towards Russia
  4.3 Economic ties between Russia and the European Union
  4.4 The cost of sanctions for Russia
  5. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH
  REFERENCES
  APPENDICES
  
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  1. INTRODUCTION
  
  1.1 Background and overview
  
  Economic sanctions at the beginning of the XXI century, as well as in the XX century are the important and two-edged tool of foreign policy and the international diplomacy. Accepted for limited term, they can make long impact, the economy feels their effect fully not at once, and later certain time. Many negative consequences (decrease in rates of a gain of GDP, loss of workplaces and opportunities of development of a business sector) are shown with a temporary log. Besides, sanctions are cancelled not always as quickly as they are imposed (World bank, 2015).
  In the middle of March, 2014, after Russia recognized results of the Crimean referendum contrary to the heard preventions, and supported unilateral declaration of independence of the Republic of Crimea and accepted its offer on entry into structure of Russia, the USA and the European Union, Australia, New Zealand and Canada put into operation the first package of sanctions. The subsequent extension of sanctions (April-May) was connected with a situation aggravation in the east of Ukraine. Organizers of sanctions accused Russia of the actions directed on undermining territorial integrity of Ukraine, in particular, in delivery of the weapon to the pro-Russian insurgents. The following round of sanctions was connected with accident of Boeing 777 in Donetsk region on July 17, 2014 which was caused by actions of the insurgents supported by Russia (Simond de Galbert, 2015).
  The mechanism of sanctions is a common tool of external pressure on the country in order to change it’s foreign or domestic policies. Enforcement mechanism comprises applying significant economic, reputational and political damage. At the present time there are a number of sanction measures against Russia in connection with the Ukrainian crisis.
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  2. LITERATURE REVIEW
  
  2.1 Problem definition
  
  For a year and a half, Russia has been living under sanctions. The restrictive measures were imposed as a response to its continued violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. The sanctions were crafted by an informal coalition of states politically and economically representing the West. Despite the Western nature of the sanctions, Russian and non-Russian companies (including Chinese) involved in Western markets tacitly respected the sanctions as well.
  In 2014 the Russian economy was influenced by impact of two shocks. The first of shocks is caused by integration of Russia into world economy through export of natural resources, and, respectively, its dependence on recurrence of the world raw markets. From July till December, 2014 prices of oil fell more than twice that caused deterioration of the foreign trade conditions for Russia. Ruble exchange rate decreased by 46% in relation to US dollar that negatively affected already weak business and consumer confidence. As a result of measures for toughening of a monetary policy the crediting cost that caused the subsequent decrease in domestic demand increased (Bond, 2015).
  The second, more specific shock was caused by geopolitical intensity which arose in March, 2014 and became the reason of economic sanctions. The perception of investments into Russia amplified as more risky, the cost of external loans for the Russian banks and the enterprises significantly increased. In December spreads on the Russian credit default swaps reached peak values in 578 basic points in comparison with 159 in the previous year (Odendahl, 2015).
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